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│Paper P&L+0.00 ◎│Open0│Trades0rule detail
3-hop chain→buy
rejected: only 0.1x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 3% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)
OOS effect
-4.5%
n=19 out-of-sample
Hit rate
3%
31 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
-0.3% → -0.0%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.652
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
recursive family
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-2.9% … +2.4%
Support31
OOS support19
MDL bits20
Case / control83485 / 461541
Motif size4n · 3e
Shape ide00000000000…
Groundingcrew 47
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
| Node | Role | Address | Invariance | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| w0 | wallet | 8c19fdf26753f9374d12f5c15a3b1589c800def1394b7974322cce975dd63791 | 98% | 49 |
Other crews running this exact shape
31 related groundings
| Crew | Support | OOS | Kept? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crew 325 | 25 | +12.7% | — | view → |
| crew 19197 | 40 | +7.2% | — | view → |
| crew 226 | 33 | +5.0% | — | view → |
| crew 88 | 64 | +4.8% | — | view → |
| crew 13 | 133 | +4.4% | — | view → |
| crew 113 | 34 | +4.1% | — | view → |
| crew 34 | 22 | +2.9% | — | view → |
| all | 373755 | +1.8% | — | view → |
| crew 213 | 47 | +0.8% | — | view → |
| crew 21 | 128 | +0.6% | — | view → |
| crew 40 | 45 | +0.3% | — | view → |
| crew 55 | 34 | +0.1% | — | view → |
| crew 18968 | 17 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 1968 | 210 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2536 | 25 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2978 | 92 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 17643 | 19 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 25572 | 22 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 68 | 203 | -0.5% | — | view → |
| crew 56 | 26 | -0.9% | — | view → |
| crew 43 | 18 | -0.9% | — | view → |
| crew 59 | 51 | -1.9% | — | view → |
| crew 12 | 16 | -2.7% | — | view → |
| crew 6 | 33 | -3.4% | — | view → |
| crew 186 | 17 | -4.5% | — | view → |
| crew 31 | 34 | -5.0% | — | view → |
| crew 17893 | 62 | -5.5% | — | view → |
| crew 373 | 36 | -6.7% | — | view → |
| crew 341 | 21 | -6.8% | — | view → |
| crew 110 | 16 | -7.9% | — | view → |
| crew 252 | 15 | -16.7% | — | view → |
Crew 47
200 resolved wallets
1bdde…e7931882ed…aed038c19f…6379176588…30e14f8b96…c936ec724a…4b7cc2ec2c…3175930bc1…512f833bb1…8ef4c0eb58…88ef8cdb0e…88a9c43e7e…1a6c253fba…d15b26aa48…2be87e5d0d…7f13842ad3…f9389ba4a0…e1e589726e…dbe125a475…fa7460000b…386c98bf9e…99f83f00b5…0318e9fcd9…89dcb900c4…babeb679de…f44bac3474…0abfdc9ab1…fac864f8da…0eceec90ee…d0aa34c7cb…5ce6d90e11…501d2fe000…947b016454…7422c90ae9…4f1888a32c…584784ca04…2e841292de…9dfdadb5b2…dff7d79fce…2709b10125…ac2e43f421…e6de1eb213…de84a1b3ac…bec7ace621…e4922298df…7edf0432f9…486b881597…508a241188…0141571151…64acb478fc…5414516fd6…d0c2c58a7a…a0b3881646…3152553ff8…ee3e4d71df…1fc2450595…372b2a8e33…cc142a1653…310f7bd197…209b66ddbf…fbd873f4c4…6af39dee74…9424df3c7c…98d24d658d…fb3ab91573…c4e23b8e14…a725b15363…3196fd8182…2bf569a7fa…c0c4f17ea0…5e69373d83…1816e01bd7…2b7dccfd66…2cfc84717f…5c8ec341d0…48146efde5…4bc69692c1…0523bee8e1…0065797468…6b67058ee4…fe42d+120 more
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
| Token | Slot | Return | Pump? | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69c9…7b6f | 416,972,894 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| c9ac…a53f | 418,306,326 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 72f3…b61f | 422,435,748 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| d767…d3af | 419,464,221 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 2bfb…b60f | 420,213,680 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 4794…467f | 415,799,409 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| d609…e35f | 418,255,710 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 4b7b…325f | 412,280,302 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 9920…aedf | 418,287,371 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 715d…16ff | 420,132,149 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| e67b…615f | 427,067,624 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 8ffd…f3cf | 427,421,569 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 30a7…c80f | 425,851,897 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 5051…7a50 | 414,620,236 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| d6d0…9f9f | 424,541,682 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| d729…f79f | 412,934,609 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 8562…e15f | 422,481,031 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 8862…222f | 427,364,881 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 97ec…11ff | 427,424,969 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 6a7a…06af | 418,788,167 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 2dbd…008f | 424,109,523 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| c61b…646f | 424,360,061 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| ee54…a22f | 422,416,383 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 8932…a25f | 424,268,230 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 1028…430f | 411,857,650 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 9aa5…162f | 419,044,106 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 73f5…a7cf | 419,502,797 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 742a…7fef | 417,374,557 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 7d90…75ef | 418,718,745 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| e728…695f | 416,263,203 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 3243…1a5f | 423,174,165 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| bd70…41af | 426,813,383 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| c5d0…b01f | 423,090,084 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 8659…444f | 423,324,075 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 3088…92df | 419,374,281 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 2111…466f | 413,846,055 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| ac48…698c | 419,768,638 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 74bf…271f | 425,111,844 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 7eaa…ec7f | 426,506,169 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| d3b5…ac1f | 427,530,348 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 2462…498f | 426,958,162 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 09c7…a2cf | 416,233,433 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 5501…6769 | 421,613,649 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 10e1…e2ff | 422,533,819 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 3057…5fbf | 422,961,635 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 558b…36fa | 425,798,733 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 2db6…77bf | 427,400,615 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| fae5…974f | 422,544,018 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| f90b…e14f | 417,761,187 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| fd5c…1c5f | 415,350,499 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| b479…434f | 418,052,807 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 71e5…036f | 425,377,820 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 32b7…746f | 418,287,293 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 14a2…bd0f | 416,731,968 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 16a5…c09f | 427,381,647 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 94d1…abff | 418,202,444 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 3b2f…71ef | 411,858,691 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| ec8f…dccf | 418,234,125 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| a32f…688f | 418,264,994 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |
| 5544…39ff | 411,705,103 | +30.0% | ✓ | 47 | replay |