3-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 0.0x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 0% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 25362 anchors

OOS effect

+0.0%

n=3 out-of-sample

Hit rate

25 occurrences

Raw → shrunk

-0.2% → -0.2%

empirical-Bayes

FDR q

0.858

not significant

Exact rule

Expressive-Patterns DSL

Motif

recursive family

◇ gold ring = frozen constant

Statistics

effect, confidence & description length

95% CI-0.7% … +0.3%

Support25

OOS support3

MDL bits20

Case / control83485 / 461541

Motif size4n · 3e

Shape ide00000000000…

Groundingcrew 2536

Anchors

frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint

Node	Role	Address	Invariance	Support
w0	wallet	93ff65bab88a3b5879176bc3f7c830f4b6dc62a43a4f4f565054c675efc9ba4d	96%	27
w1	wallet	1e25d2244f1ac2512f2f2717c4e649b2a14866f1b1377bb363509e15b6ef77d9	96%	27

Other crews running this exact shape

31 related groundings

Crew	Support	OOS	Kept?
crew 325	25	+12.7%	—	view →
crew 19197	40	+7.2%	—	view →
crew 226	33	+5.0%	—	view →
crew 88	64	+4.8%	—	view →
crew 13	133	+4.4%	—	view →
crew 113	34	+4.1%	—	view →
crew 34	22	+2.9%	—	view →
all	373755	+1.8%	—	view →
crew 213	47	+0.8%	—	view →
crew 21	128	+0.6%	—	view →
crew 40	45	+0.3%	—	view →
crew 55	34	+0.1%	—	view →
crew 18968	17	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 1968	210	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 2978	92	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 17643	19	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 25572	22	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 68	203	-0.5%	—	view →
crew 56	26	-0.9%	—	view →
crew 43	18	-0.9%	—	view →
crew 59	51	-1.9%	—	view →
crew 12	16	-2.7%	—	view →
crew 6	33	-3.4%	—	view →
crew 186	17	-4.5%	—	view →
crew 47	31	-4.5%	—	view →
crew 31	34	-5.0%	—	view →
crew 17893	62	-5.5%	—	view →
crew 373	36	-6.7%	—	view →
crew 341	21	-6.8%	—	view →
crew 110	16	-7.9%	—	view →
crew 252	15	-16.7%	—	view →

Crew 2536

65 resolved wallets

6048e…af6a01e25d…f77d920e99…8934182e89…dbb36d1949…bfb1a3ea9a…61de6d8698…362372e801…fb990dbbd4…c3417804fa…a33701663a…711cca9609…99d25d1c59…7e31dd403a…6e750aa545…7b26f5e21c…ff5474d20a…227b969b1b…e9a10e7454…b9ebad9fa4…caab793168…dc962031cb…0f69015059…0fcc230166…a2f34df6a8…e26b72fd4d…5cb1cd71f5…9608ea0419…f7f4d6f9c2…576eb02cdc…557a2b60b2…04cdf3a9ce…d0477bbc14…470742ea15…61e6423f97…1d2dc1139b…58eaa1e6c5…e5bd287f88…fcf20b34d9…9a88c73932…138505aa74…af497d5111…81c91df285…89ee436663…974aafb3c0…0564186205…21d9809997…e1644bc57f…694a5727a9…50a4fee737…7bb9ce202a…054b7e7bc4…97ec95d349…f8020ae453…182baf3b31…98a39b28fa…c40e7da0ba…d97ed63c20…118181f025…ef6dd5893c…948759e64c…c7c69f2220…99951955a2…6df7964f85…10d723df6e…4afa9

Supporting episodes

60 occurrences that induced this rule

Token	Slot	Return	Crew
2014…15af	417,306,076	+6.1%	2536	replay
a7cd…baef	412,060,645	+5.2%	2536	replay
b829…d33f	417,529,835	+2.0%	2536	replay
1afa…3acf	417,529,835	+2.0%	2536	replay
c911…6f2f	421,487,472	+1.9%	2536	replay
eed0…f07f	417,953,958	+1.3%	2536	replay
57e8…0f8f	412,064,558	+0.9%	2536	replay
094e…285f	418,998,719	+0.8%	2536	replay
d9b4…5c1f	418,998,740	+0.8%	2536	replay
9ae9…674f	422,025,875	+0.8%	2536	replay
4273…3fbf	412,072,354	+0.8%	2536	replay
05e8…8f3f	412,073,300	+0.7%	2536	replay
d196…858f	412,074,636	+0.7%	2536	replay
4196…4e3f	412,072,978	+0.7%	2536	replay
a08c…e54f	412,067,578	+0.7%	2536	replay
2868…2c4f	421,410,416	+0.7%	2536	replay
d25f…7d5f	421,446,745	+0.7%	2536	replay
bb47…043f	417,541,436	+0.7%	2536	replay
0386…de3f	417,328,129	+0.7%	2536	replay
88d3…0a6f	417,492,751	+0.7%	2536	replay
85a6…ce5f	417,492,751	+0.7%	2536	replay
5879…24df	412,072,852	+0.7%	2536	replay
8556…f6af	412,073,598	+0.7%	2536	replay
1392…d2af	412,074,988	+0.7%	2536	replay
f3be…3a9f	412,071,889	+0.7%	2536	replay
cd59…696f	412,071,742	+0.7%	2536	replay
c53f…056f	416,420,398	+0.7%	2536	replay
f01a…502f	416,401,983	+0.7%	2536	replay
57d1…017f	416,420,397	+0.7%	2536	replay
a387…fecf	412,066,262	+0.7%	2536	replay
1466…a88f	412,072,919	+0.7%	2536	replay
baa2…574f	412,061,338	+0.7%	2536	replay
0066…717f	416,637,139	+0.6%	2536	replay
654b…a59f	422,697,785	+0.6%	2536	replay
e34c…cdcf	422,734,493	+0.5%	2536	replay
ac07…620f	417,082,843	+0.3%	2536	replay
ab31…39cf	417,326,483	+0.3%	2536	replay
384e…dc6f	416,422,731	+0.3%	2536	replay
63b5…83ff	417,106,342	+0.3%	2536	replay
d88e…b7df	417,107,119	+0.3%	2536	replay
4351…1bff	417,323,603	+0.2%	2536	replay
7842…73bf	417,291,313	+0.2%	2536	replay
c1a7…2c1f	417,287,997	+0.2%	2536	replay
4bd6…bb6f	417,303,732	+0.2%	2536	replay
239b…6d6f	417,101,318	+0.2%	2536	replay
0bad…7def	417,305,055	+0.2%	2536	replay
f39f…cdff	416,443,856	+0.2%	2536	replay
647a…2bdf	417,765,607	+0.2%	2536	replay
1625…d77f	417,765,607	+0.2%	2536	replay
af42…469f	416,670,868	+0.1%	2536	replay
a240…410f	416,670,867	+0.1%	2536	replay
0627…6d4f	422,057,869	+0.1%	2536	replay
deab…363f	417,532,250	+0.1%	2536	replay
094e…394f	422,515,272	+0.1%	2536	replay
49dc…0b1f	417,532,579	+0.1%	2536	replay
032e…74bf	417,534,980	+0.1%	2536	replay
965e…141f	417,538,583	+0.1%	2536	replay
22bb…9a3f	417,532,579	+0.1%	2536	replay
e868…ff3f	417,537,438	+0.1%	2536	replay
1e78…8ecf	416,818,989	+0.1%	2536	replay