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rule detail

transfer→buy

rejected: only 1.0x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 31% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 3061 anchor
OOS effect
-5.1%
n=12 out-of-sample
Hit rate
31%
26 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+3.8% → +4.8%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.232
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpfwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-4.2% … +11.9%
Support26
OOS support12
MDL bits20
Case / control698905 / 1282029
Motif size3n · 2e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 306
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0walletefbefcc7c4e006f14236ee8fd4dbac8d0fc619e9f11bda6c78202011f45de0e189%34
Other crews running this exact shape
42 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 496626+30.0%—view →
crew 1452918+30.0%—view →
crew 1912715+30.0%—view →
crew 246816+21.2%—view →
crew 5528+19.9%—view →
crew 2539918+17.8%—view →
crew 3071916+15.0%—view →
crew 11323+14.8%—view →
crew 8845+13.2%—view →
crew 2176+10.7%—view →
crew 518+10.3%—view →
crew 1548+9.8%—view →
crew 4039+9.3%—view →
crew 6872+9.2%—view →
crew 14524+9.2%—view →
crew 4370+8.6%—view →
crew 6165+8.6%—view →
crew 1789389+8.5%—view →
crew 918+8.4%—view →
crew 13584+8.4%—view →
crew 21337+8.1%—view →
all1372921+7.4%—view →
crew 5952+6.6%—view →
crew 9426+5.9%—view →
crew 22617+5.7%—view →
crew 5635+5.4%—view →
crew 37331+5.2%—view →
crew 3126+5.1%—view →
crew 1688+4.8%—view →
crew 17120+4.0%—view →
crew 1258+1.4%—view →
crew 3494+1.1%—view →
crew 34116+0.3%—view →
crew 2025+0.2%—view →
crew 1968365+0.0%—view →
crew 2978171+0.0%—view →
crew 3009618+0.0%—view →
crew 1017-0.8%—view →
crew 4739-0.9%—view →
crew 14050-1.7%—view →
crew 1920-7.1%—view →
crew 707715-12.3%—view →
Crew 306
200 resolved wallets
b37e1…ad95bce542…08337efbef…de0e16a8a2…b708ac1e29…868ffc6cf0…6ff3062cdd…9898b94a29…2cf532e77c…166b00324d…449136d808…b3d6128f0b…030c850def…449c94d3d7…a0da85e600…c68d566df5…2732ac70e5…a2fdc63e69…86776fb4d5…8aebaf605b…7200f1111c…c649b1ad19…c847663c3c…b8ff660440…682244ab24…999519a41f…5845bcd303…9d1ec790c9…4c38c3e9dd…d4cfda3c92…fd3a185744…e210fedbef…1d98bb6124…d08ce84105…36e762517c…a13f804b2b…47114621d0…af9fa5fa45…3c627cef66…22202e3e8c…3ff0114161…b2a7e49833…0bc602ba86…23e07212e8…450f6a4dd3…9b9f066e1c…f9cd486d43…98ecc34796…98534c4feb…53010a0185…d0c6bcb781…a274f2b331…236726ccfd…751cd4d867…86946bf71b…47b1acb9b5…b99c8b09e8…540d26b058…6abf7f733e…80254346f5…ef2222493f…8475491bae…ddda225803…16eeba99b0…2464d5e092…2b319f7c7b…a14d61d7ff…a96e0a3e5d…8f19ce539a…5291d10354…13cd44212f…9c40106ca4…77d76e27cd…9b4a782d2e…c50d2ed804…07f6734167…8a5fcc0b5f…329b2e118d…e03b2fe383…666efd2834…207e4+120 more
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
8888…3b4f416,043,469+30.0%✓306 replay
4416…e03f427,429,225+30.0%✓306 replay
2b65…23df416,777,043+30.0%✓306 replay
3a9e…b9cf417,325,686+30.0%✓306 replay
8a7c…d42f409,557,810+30.0%✓306 replay
ee75…194f420,566,264+30.0%✓306 replay
8aa8…f5df425,218,088+30.0%✓306 replay
6f3e…225f425,877,164+30.0%✓306 replay
fdca…419f419,944,914+30.0%✓306 replay
b33f…0ecf427,410,798+30.0%✓306 replay
b36b…dcae426,050,225+30.0%✓306 replay
8a21…d57f417,310,602+30.0%✓306 replay
3e37…b1ff422,231,100+30.0%✓306 replay
3e6f…723f419,088,114+30.0%✓306 replay
5dac…9c04423,472,428+30.0%✓306 replay
8597…f68f414,007,416+30.0%✓306 replay
733c…c39f422,395,347+30.0%✓306 replay
7e57…6b6f420,090,555+30.0%✓306 replay
2c8a…afcf426,086,155+30.0%✓306 replay
8af6…7baf418,279,106+30.0%✓306 replay
4519…77df422,446,572+30.0%✓306 replay
b8c2…a47f412,120,250+30.0%✓306 replay
5ed6…988f414,129,515+30.0%✓306 replay
6b4e…2a2f417,212,253+30.0%✓306 replay
7395…ca6f412,040,360+30.0%✓306 replay
f0b2…72df420,255,846+30.0%✓306 replay
718c…7ebf420,566,737+30.0%✓306 replay
25ee…4caf417,912,651+30.0%✓306 replay
255f…2bdf412,790,091+30.0%✓306 replay
24b3…c08f410,208,988+30.0%✓306 replay
8bd9…af2f420,071,486+30.0%✓306 replay
4448…fa0f417,611,455+30.0%✓306 replay
23bd…e8bf422,738,455+30.0%✓306 replay
4116…91ef415,484,815+30.0%✓306 replay
866a…930f418,882,721+30.0%✓306 replay
d8db…acef413,047,766+30.0%✓306 replay
417a…40ff417,911,030+30.0%✓306 replay
300f…a8df422,732,642+30.0%✓306 replay
162b…980f410,031,432+30.0%✓306 replay
4427…7dcf421,292,667+30.0%✓306 replay
6034…043f423,744,486+30.0%✓306 replay
7747…032f415,860,995+30.0%✓306 replay
2cab…f4af427,518,954+30.0%✓306 replay
bf65…925f424,179,357+30.0%✓306 replay
d1c3…4d8f423,710,159+30.0%✓306 replay
9020…dbff417,189,077+30.0%✓306 replay
04d2…87ef420,985,654+30.0%✓306 replay
0547…067f415,942,740+30.0%✓306 replay
055d…046f412,298,208+30.0%✓306 replay
4746…83ff417,927,850+30.0%✓306 replay
d5ed…b8af414,549,832+30.0%✓306 replay
4eec…e8df420,273,974+30.0%✓306 replay
7c14…84ff419,816,731+30.0%✓306 replay
e73c…33ff425,290,983+30.0%✓306 replay
9052…e2ff420,270,764+30.0%✓306 replay
4392…791f419,942,599+30.0%✓306 replay
9450…a32f424,932,163+30.0%✓306 replay
bc51…c09f422,179,997+30.0%✓306 replay
bce6…0bdf426,401,510+30.0%✓306 replay
917c…64bf418,353,833+30.0%✓306 replay