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Offline
│Paper P&L+0.00 ◎│Open0│Trades0rule detail
transfer→buy
rejected: only 1.1x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 34% vs base 32%)
OOS effect
+7.4%
n=607534 out-of-sample
Hit rate
34%
1372921 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+6.9% → +6.9%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.000
significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
fixed motif
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI+6.9% … +6.9%
Support1,372,921
OOS support607,534
MDL bits0
Case / control698905 / 1282029
Motif size3n · 2e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingall
Other crews running this exact shape
42 related groundings
| Crew | Support | OOS | Kept? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crew 4966 | 26 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 14529 | 18 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 19127 | 15 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2468 | 16 | +21.2% | — | view → |
| crew 55 | 28 | +19.9% | — | view → |
| crew 25399 | 18 | +17.8% | — | view → |
| crew 30719 | 16 | +15.0% | — | view → |
| crew 113 | 23 | +14.8% | — | view → |
| crew 88 | 45 | +13.2% | — | view → |
| crew 21 | 76 | +10.7% | — | view → |
| crew 5 | 18 | +10.3% | — | view → |
| crew 15 | 48 | +9.8% | — | view → |
| crew 40 | 39 | +9.3% | — | view → |
| crew 68 | 72 | +9.2% | — | view → |
| crew 145 | 24 | +9.2% | — | view → |
| crew 43 | 70 | +8.6% | — | view → |
| crew 6 | 165 | +8.6% | — | view → |
| crew 17893 | 89 | +8.5% | — | view → |
| crew 9 | 18 | +8.4% | — | view → |
| crew 13 | 584 | +8.4% | — | view → |
| crew 213 | 37 | +8.1% | — | view → |
| crew 59 | 52 | +6.6% | — | view → |
| crew 94 | 26 | +5.9% | — | view → |
| crew 226 | 17 | +5.7% | — | view → |
| crew 56 | 35 | +5.4% | — | view → |
| crew 373 | 31 | +5.2% | — | view → |
| crew 31 | 26 | +5.1% | — | view → |
| crew 16 | 88 | +4.8% | — | view → |
| crew 171 | 20 | +4.0% | — | view → |
| crew 12 | 58 | +1.4% | — | view → |
| crew 34 | 94 | +1.1% | — | view → |
| crew 341 | 16 | +0.3% | — | view → |
| crew 20 | 25 | +0.2% | — | view → |
| crew 1968 | 365 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2978 | 171 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 30096 | 18 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 10 | 17 | -0.8% | — | view → |
| crew 47 | 39 | -0.9% | — | view → |
| crew 140 | 50 | -1.7% | — | view → |
| crew 306 | 26 | -5.1% | — | view → |
| crew 19 | 20 | -7.1% | — | view → |
| crew 7077 | 15 | -12.3% | — | view → |
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
| Token | Slot | Return | Pump? | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2bb4…2f7f | 421,768,995 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2bb3…0bbf | 415,669,366 | +30.0% | ✓ | 2978 | replay |
| 2bb3…b3bf | 424,129,166 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2bae…961f | 418,908,126 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2bae…671f | 417,090,010 | +30.0% | ✓ | 1219 | replay |
| 2bac…37bf | 413,868,381 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2bac…bfff | 417,339,023 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2ba9…84ba | 412,499,847 | +30.0% | ✓ | 88 | replay |
| 2ba8…21bf | 415,108,861 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2ba7…4c4f | 419,761,665 | +30.0% | ✓ | 43 | replay |
| 2ba7…c17f | 424,782,513 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2ba2…520f | 416,633,403 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2ba1…7d9f | 424,769,852 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b9e…9ab5 | 426,746,788 | +30.0% | ✓ | 12 | replay |
| 2b9b…2c1f | 418,661,858 | +30.0% | ✓ | 17110 | replay |
| 2b9a…2eef | 424,365,665 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b99…7b5f | 414,311,960 | +30.0% | ✓ | 1968 | replay |
| 2b95…c6ff | 427,090,992 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34774 | replay |
| 2b92…2e6f | 411,950,888 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b8e…30af | 426,644,156 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b8c…ba4f | 409,740,996 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b89…dd5f | 411,981,256 | +30.0% | ✓ | 155 | replay |
| 2b87…6853 | 423,500,767 | +30.0% | ✓ | — | replay |
| 2b83…e93f | 424,893,050 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2b81…cbaf | 425,005,037 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b6e…e7ff | 422,063,472 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b6b…3eef | 414,558,281 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b6b…f55f | 411,042,565 | +30.0% | ✓ | 5 | replay |
| 2b68…5c7f | 424,923,901 | +30.0% | ✓ | 43 | replay |
| 2b65…23df | 416,777,043 | +30.0% | ✓ | 306 | replay |
| 2b63…5bbf | 420,711,110 | +30.0% | ✓ | 439 | replay |
| 2b63…d39f | 427,608,967 | +30.0% | ✓ | 27577 | replay |
| 2b5f…0c7f | 423,632,868 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b5c…838f | 413,149,806 | +30.0% | ✓ | 1968 | replay |
| 2b51…c4c1 | 413,361,765 | +30.0% | ✓ | 9542 | replay |
| 2b4f…137f | 418,848,755 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22102 | replay |
| 2b4f…45af | 424,747,333 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2b47…7c3f | 413,417,814 | +30.0% | ✓ | 1968 | replay |
| 2b43…c01f | 420,354,993 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b40…d7af | 411,974,890 | +30.0% | ✓ | 341 | replay |
| 2b40…143f | 417,155,764 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2b3d…d05b | 416,270,428 | +30.0% | ✓ | 16 | replay |
| 2b3c…655f | 417,381,859 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b3c…e32f | 416,302,555 | +30.0% | ✓ | 5974 | replay |
| 2b39…ff3f | 415,191,387 | +30.0% | ✓ | 3556 | replay |
| 2b38…b63f | 424,598,116 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b37…89ff | 409,911,029 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| b78e…955f | 425,026,558 | +30.0% | ✓ | 94 | replay |
| 2b2a…a43f | 412,190,567 | +30.0% | ✓ | 9469 | replay |
| 2b29…18cf | 422,716,628 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b27…c12f | 426,933,346 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b22…6f6f | 416,092,879 | +30.0% | ✓ | 59 | replay |
| 2b22…204f | 421,041,099 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2b20…37ff | 424,976,838 | +30.0% | ✓ | 145 | replay |
| 2b2d…362f | 426,453,959 | +30.0% | ✓ | 3298 | replay |
| 2ac7…e1c1 | 421,932,869 | +30.0% | ✓ | 59 | replay |
| 2ac6…60ff | 426,475,577 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 2aad…db4f | 416,493,912 | +30.0% | ✓ | 3677 | replay |
| 2abb…eff7 | 413,851,520 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2abc…c76f | 409,882,491 | +30.0% | ✓ | 11336 | replay |