Offline
Paper P&L+0.00Open0Trades0
rule detail

transfer→buy

rejected: only 0.8x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 25% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 24682 anchors
OOS effect
+21.2%
n=4 out-of-sample
Hit rate
25%
16 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+2.5% +4.1%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.369
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpfwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-7.0% … +12.1%
Support16
OOS support4
MDL bits20
Case / control698905 / 1282029
Motif size3n · 2e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 2468
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0wallet5804568086b8b0f592c968e324bd599487cbdfb2764cb580727859e9a60c58ce100%20
w1wallet915fd539ae22436391c2be78fba92e5a73c3f667ed1b042bb957301dca072373100%20
Other crews running this exact shape
42 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 496626+30.0%view →
crew 1452918+30.0%view →
crew 1912715+30.0%view →
crew 5528+19.9%view →
crew 2539918+17.8%view →
crew 3071916+15.0%view →
crew 11323+14.8%view →
crew 8845+13.2%view →
crew 2176+10.7%view →
crew 518+10.3%view →
crew 1548+9.8%view →
crew 4039+9.3%view →
crew 6872+9.2%view →
crew 14524+9.2%view →
crew 4370+8.6%view →
crew 6165+8.6%view →
crew 1789389+8.5%view →
crew 918+8.4%view →
crew 13584+8.4%view →
crew 21337+8.1%view →
all1372921+7.4%view →
crew 5952+6.6%view →
crew 9426+5.9%view →
crew 22617+5.7%view →
crew 5635+5.4%view →
crew 37331+5.2%view →
crew 3126+5.1%view →
crew 1688+4.8%view →
crew 17120+4.0%view →
crew 1258+1.4%view →
crew 3494+1.1%view →
crew 34116+0.3%view →
crew 2025+0.2%view →
crew 1968365+0.0%view →
crew 2978171+0.0%view →
crew 3009618+0.0%view →
crew 1017-0.8%view →
crew 4739-0.9%view →
crew 14050-1.7%view →
crew 30626-5.1%view →
crew 1920-7.1%view →
crew 707715-12.3%view →
Crew 2468
16 resolved wallets
58045…c58ce9b4e7…7731bce006…ee391ba1bc…d4db5915fd…72373046e4…8834e9b2ae…2e8d56ebdb…4a3b624baf…f7210bb976…1570613a13…6de3d8c4be…3c8dadb8a2…4b826741d0…9f8c99286c…b1141e2a97…cc43b
Supporting episodes
18 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
8bbf…40af424,289,012+30.0%2468 replay
90a6…3bef424,862,813+30.0%2468 replay
3cc6…f58f420,989,643+30.0%2468 replay
0a91…47bf424,784,424+30.0%2468 replay
3cdb…26b7410,338,824+30.0%2468 replay
9756…06bf409,920,433+30.0%2468 replay
5fbf…2fcf421,667,972+9.3%2468 replay
afd4…207f418,772,667+4.6%2468 replay
6b12…b44f410,415,934+1.5%2468 replay
2db0…ba8f418,326,602+0.7%2468 replay
31a1…01cf417,103,919+0.4%2468 replay
fbd9…7699420,975,603+0.3%2468 replay
9263…afec421,010,444+0.2%2468 replay
8c6b…4113421,604,915+0.0%2468 replay
5919…7bcf421,673,949-20.0%2468 replay
f7e1…6f7f421,038,085-20.0%2468 replay
d88c…d9ff414,819,325-20.0%2468 replay
eeb8…6a0f421,659,812-20.0%2468 replay