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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 1.1x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 34% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 8782 anchors
OOS effect
+17.5%
n=4 out-of-sample
Hit rate
34%
38 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+0.3% → +1.7%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.540
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-7.0% … +7.7%
Support38
OOS support4
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 878
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0walletcda2743f3a6d818e2ea3d24247cc00d9f1712850ceaf0ab37011a7a8dc48e23a100%42
w1wallet8ff579b86f8e8f7af267341983f984af1aaecdbdf26e20e45205406ebc20c4c9100%42
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1651022+11.9%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 1509517+0.6%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 487483+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 1835418+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1583115-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 878
13 resolved wallets
cda27…8e23a5d328…b52b907fba…75bc906ed9…1698860b6f…3df30001cf…2b60fdcbd9…4cc83932c1…45f1674bf2…f3f6f5f514…bd44ca2292…d9bea500e3…d1ed32c3f6…4ddef
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
241d…305f420,100,872+30.0%✓878 replay
012f…96bf419,079,385+30.0%✓878 replay
7198…c9cf415,646,985+30.0%✓878 replay
f928…3ccf420,099,516+30.0%✓878 replay
9678…3a5f415,645,437+30.0%✓878 replay
c82e…cbdf420,417,634+30.0%✓878 replay
7419…3c6f420,299,270+30.0%✓878 replay
bd60…f8df415,643,765+30.0%✓878 replay
971c…ab90427,675,723+30.0%✓878 replay
1299…337f415,647,094+30.0%✓878 replay
1325…2cdf420,100,553+30.0%✓878 replay
a5b7…f53f415,647,639+30.0%✓878 replay
5f93…1f0f417,121,793+30.0%✓878 replay
e8d4…9e2f411,364,092+30.0%✓878 replay
02bc…cdaf419,079,084+30.0%✓878 replay
f4bd…063f419,057,560+30.0%✓878 replay
60bc…2f9f415,645,011+30.0%✓878 replay
0a8c…2cdf418,917,586+30.0%✓878 replay
8abe…e8df418,917,999+30.0%✓878 replay
5d9b…a8bf420,507,551+30.0%✓878 replay
881f…8fcf415,644,811+30.0%✓878 replay
6d2b…9baf415,647,296+30.0%✓878 replay
ac5c…c3df411,361,195+30.0%✓878 replay
517e…db8f415,642,852+30.0%✓878 replay
78ab…c96f420,508,079+30.0%✓878 replay
6dc1…9b8f415,647,887+30.0%✓878 replay
db02…403f420,522,332+30.0%✓878 replay
c44e…8cef415,595,683+30.0%✓878 replay
e6d7…bccf415,647,730+30.0%✓878 replay
0dd1…5b6f415,646,368+30.0%✓878 replay
132f…69bf415,646,545+30.0%✓878 replay
7129…b59f415,646,880+30.0%✓878 replay
f9ee…dd6f415,644,020+30.0%✓878 replay
c0a0…46cf415,550,309+30.0%✓878 replay
c6f7…5c9f415,643,030+30.0%✓878 replay
24b7…091f425,974,485+30.0%✓878 replay
cbc5…aa5f415,646,737+30.0%✓878 replay
582f…a73e420,418,248+30.0%✓878 replay
c8d7…a0df420,099,247+30.0%✓878 replay
c918…6baf415,646,853+30.0%✓878 replay
b3b9…136f415,595,539+30.0%✓878 replay
30bd…6d8f415,647,414+30.0%✓878 replay
e258…fdef419,057,081+30.0%✓878 replay
2d62…652f415,643,095+30.0%✓878 replay
cec3…92ff415,648,700+30.0%✓878 replay
a488…798f413,021,966+30.0%✓878 replay
0e05…d73f415,645,621+30.0%✓878 replay
05d3…c22f420,099,436+30.0%✓878 replay
ed93…d48f415,649,454+30.0%✓878 replay
c0b9…9e5f415,595,627+30.0%✓878 replay
9046…de9f415,649,642+30.0%✓878 replay
0bec…8a5f415,645,968+30.0%✓878 replay
2628…85ef417,096,398+30.0%✓878 replay
1956…8adf420,507,743+30.0%✓878 replay
b93b…c9af415,647,585+30.0%✓878 replay
5496…014f419,016,046+30.0%✓878 replay
9a60…a0df420,099,086+30.0%✓878 replay
72dc…1e4f415,646,050+30.0%✓878 replay
aefd…32b1422,757,287+30.0%✓878 replay
4dcf…eacf420,506,974+24.0%878 replay