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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 1.6x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 50% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 165102 anchors
OOS effect
+11.9%
n=16 out-of-sample
Hit rate
50%
22 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+7.5% → +8.0%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.110
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-2.7% … +17.7%
Support22
OOS support16
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 16510
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0walleta45f8cfe3137da0329bf178a97165b4730a0773b8b72b846c54153dba55d258395%36
w1wallet021c0e7abe90576cb7efe8660225f50cd12cfb09e39c6ce0454898ae061a4a7895%36
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 87838+17.5%—view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 1509517+0.6%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 487483+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 1835418+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1583115-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 16510
5 resolved wallets
a45f8…d2583021c0…a4a78e5703…cf9f19755e…7a1a8d0605…fba98
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
3d5a…cf2f427,523,904+30.0%✓16510 replay
d1b2…f93f427,523,276+30.0%✓16510 replay
75fb…b7cf427,523,351+30.0%✓16510 replay
b5f6…8def427,525,325+30.0%✓16510 replay
61d7…dd1f412,587,676+30.0%✓16510 replay
5bb4…b7df412,377,683+30.0%✓16510 replay
4516…90ef418,235,493+30.0%✓16510 replay
626b…1c7f427,524,847+30.0%✓16510 replay
8dc8…d89f412,593,519+30.0%✓16510 replay
7746…1b6f411,858,203+30.0%✓16510 replay
16d4…d18f427,527,441+30.0%✓16510 replay
8836…7bbf427,525,279+30.0%✓16510 replay
c94e…32af412,364,862+30.0%✓16510 replay
39a9…dc5f412,580,878+30.0%✓16510 replay
6fe0…627f412,589,635+30.0%✓16510 replay
a6bf…151f427,523,767+30.0%✓16510 replay
ac97…1e7f427,525,097+30.0%✓16510 replay
bd36…ed4f427,520,807+30.0%✓16510 replay
c471…be9f427,524,661+30.0%✓16510 replay
141b…707f427,519,606+30.0%✓16510 replay
7b49…481f412,585,694+30.0%✓16510 replay
251e…881f427,524,041+30.0%✓16510 replay
863f…a6bf412,584,354+30.0%✓16510 replay
c29c…ed3f412,367,419+30.0%✓16510 replay
29cc…06bf426,700,513+30.0%✓16510 replay
459f…6f9f420,854,911+30.0%✓16510 replay
0c7a…dc2f411,652,129+30.0%✓16510 replay
2e90…6cff412,593,629+30.0%✓16510 replay
766d…4a2f412,585,121+30.0%✓16510 replay
7737…7cef427,527,364+30.0%✓16510 replay
f417…4d1f427,521,883+30.0%✓16510 replay
3d56…3a6f427,350,452+30.0%✓16510 replay
8862…209f418,236,655+30.0%✓16510 replay
5855…cbdf426,701,039+30.0%✓16510 replay
f439…c7df426,700,558+30.0%✓16510 replay
a88a…51bf427,524,202+30.0%✓16510 replay
d8ef…4e1f427,523,293+30.0%✓16510 replay
28f0…a44f412,578,861+30.0%✓16510 replay
1125…19bf427,357,426+30.0%✓16510 replay
6723…265f427,526,216+30.0%✓16510 replay
fb1a…ce4f412,585,834+30.0%✓16510 replay
8b9b…bd7f427,521,009+30.0%✓16510 replay
fd68…075f427,522,130+30.0%✓16510 replay
60af…f7cf427,364,167+30.0%✓16510 replay
a2cd…32cf427,523,175+30.0%✓16510 replay
a825…785f427,355,002+30.0%✓16510 replay
cb6d…46cf427,357,603+30.0%✓16510 replay
b554…873f427,519,251+30.0%✓16510 replay
aa57…c2df427,519,872+30.0%✓16510 replay
9491…b27f427,526,440+30.0%✓16510 replay
ac38…80af427,524,324+30.0%✓16510 replay
5543…373f427,525,608+30.0%✓16510 replay
a5ad…a58f427,525,984+30.0%✓16510 replay
d163…f96f412,360,945+30.0%✓16510 replay
4012…74af427,523,463+30.0%✓16510 replay
bba1…abcf412,576,631+30.0%✓16510 replay
148e…fbcf427,520,994+30.0%✓16510 replay
65af…d07f412,592,895+30.0%✓16510 replay
e261…833f427,528,058+30.0%✓16510 replay
2448…c28f412,578,945+30.0%✓16510 replay