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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 1.5x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 47% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 158312 anchors
OOS effect
-20.0%
n=1 out-of-sample
Hit rate
47%
15 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+4.7% → +6.3%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.300
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-8.0% … +17.3%
Support15
OOS support1
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 15831
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0walletab539aa5ec5d1f3e81bd27f6771297b680de6a01edb29aef79c494bf194a1754100%16
w1wallete6b974b571e7c0c0d9c80e167c8e3f77a96a55b2db9a46a9e6b3c4a26bb480a0100%16
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 87838+17.5%—view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1651022+11.9%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 1509517+0.6%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 487483+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 1835418+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 15831
3 resolved wallets
e6b97…480a04a448…46522255d1…e01e4
Supporting episodes
49 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
ee91…25df417,226,219+30.0%✓15831 replay
a69c…c3ff417,256,061+30.0%✓15831 replay
aaa2…181f417,254,592+30.0%✓15831 replay
e1d2…2bef417,224,523+30.0%✓15831 replay
ef1b…bcdf417,252,758+30.0%✓15831 replay
dffa…923f417,224,808+30.0%✓15831 replay
0b83…ae3f409,573,122+30.0%✓15831 replay
db99…02ef417,258,508+30.0%✓15831 replay
dc49…ddcf417,226,112+30.0%✓15831 replay
5261…295f417,412,359+30.0%✓15831 replay
5813…850f417,258,705+30.0%✓15831 replay
2323…0faf421,273,666+12.8%15831 replay
2a7c…d83f421,273,886+6.4%15831 replay
7494…d44f421,083,475+4.2%15831 replay
f99f…e91f419,809,424+1.7%15831 replay
cfea…7fef417,279,517+0.7%15831 replay
be59…d1ef417,251,393+0.6%15831 replay
dda8…46cf425,917,270+0.4%15831 replay
7aee…9f7f427,470,355+0.1%15831 replay
760a…9f1f417,256,727+0.0%15831 replay
4ff8…351f416,351,345+0.0%15831 replay
086b…f09f419,832,290+0.0%15831 replay
e439…511f417,258,453+0.0%15831 replay
4e31…b84f419,834,812+0.0%15831 replay
68cf…df0f417,495,484+0.0%15831 replay
655f…266f419,809,849+0.0%15831 replay
51ad…b95f417,258,313+0.0%15831 replay
e53d…c76f419,811,396+0.0%15831 replay
e39b…509f417,499,784-2.5%15831 replay
f69b…612f417,499,956-3.1%15831 replay
2f4b…fbbf417,252,633-20.0%15831 replay
7bab…d58f417,258,846-20.0%15831 replay
2bd0…d19f417,255,613-20.0%15831 replay
9fe2…842f417,225,297-20.0%15831 replay
55f3…980f417,254,865-20.0%15831 replay
9ff1…ed9f417,251,971-20.0%15831 replay
b955…604f417,255,084-20.0%15831 replay
a526…4def417,258,976-20.0%15831 replay
dd0b…4f1f417,221,796-20.0%15831 replay
46ec…ed9f417,223,201-20.0%15831 replay
4221…a6ff417,254,258-20.0%15831 replay
7170…aadf417,258,595-20.0%15831 replay
5109…0e7f417,255,816-20.0%15831 replay
9dad…886f417,255,356-20.0%15831 replay
adbc…cd3f417,226,943-20.0%15831 replay
35e6…1adf417,251,846-20.0%15831 replay
029a…db8f417,255,545-20.0%15831 replay
4b81…b8bf417,218,638-20.0%15831 replay
8df2…0c6f417,249,934-20.0%15831 replay