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│Paper P&L+0.00 ◎│Open0│Trades0rule detail
wash·2-hop chain→buy
rejected: only 1.5x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 47% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)
OOS effect
-20.0%
n=1 out-of-sample
Hit rate
47%
15 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+4.7% → +6.3%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.300
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-8.0% … +17.3%
Support15
OOS support1
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 15831
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
| Node | Role | Address | Invariance | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| w0 | wallet | ab539aa5ec5d1f3e81bd27f6771297b680de6a01edb29aef79c494bf194a1754 | 100% | 16 |
| w1 | wallet | e6b974b571e7c0c0d9c80e167c8e3f77a96a55b2db9a46a9e6b3c4a26bb480a0 | 100% | 16 |
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
| Crew | Support | OOS | Kept? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crew 1533 | 35 | +29.0% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 4519 | 36 | +20.2% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 878 | 38 | +17.5% | — | view → |
| crew 6442 | 34 | +13.3% | — | view → |
| crew 2042 | 16 | +13.1% | — | view → |
| crew 25399 | 68 | +12.2% | — | view → |
| crew 16510 | 22 | +11.9% | — | view → |
| crew 16 | 33 | +10.4% | — | view → |
| crew 17893 | 3337 | +10.4% | — | view → |
| crew 2728 | 16 | +10.0% | — | view → |
| crew 13 | 72 | +9.1% | — | view → |
| all | 86168 | +7.9% | — | view → |
| crew 5659 | 17 | +7.5% | — | view → |
| crew 1050 | 127 | +7.2% | — | view → |
| crew 4966 | 44 | +3.8% | — | view → |
| crew 56 | 26 | +3.3% | — | view → |
| crew 336 | 115 | +2.7% | — | view → |
| crew 15095 | 17 | +0.6% | — | view → |
| crew 43 | 20 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 341 | 36 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2351 | 132 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 3677 | 52 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 4084 | 21 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 4874 | 83 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 5578 | 27 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 6323 | 16 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 6526 | 20 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 8743 | 27 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 11115 | 22 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 12682 | 31 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 13412 | 15 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 15372 | 23 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 18354 | 18 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 22102 | 31 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 24002 | 24 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 3593 | 18 | -0.3% | — | view → |
| crew 10888 | 23 | -10.0% | — | view → |
| crew 16437 | 18 | -13.0% | — | view → |
| crew 7956 | 27 | -20.0% | — | view → |
| crew 16628 | 28 | -20.0% | — | view → |
Crew 15831
3 resolved wallets
e6b97…480a04a448…46522255d1…e01e4
Supporting episodes
49 occurrences that induced this rule
| Token | Slot | Return | Pump? | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ee91…25df | 417,226,219 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| a69c…c3ff | 417,256,061 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| aaa2…181f | 417,254,592 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| e1d2…2bef | 417,224,523 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| ef1b…bcdf | 417,252,758 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| dffa…923f | 417,224,808 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| 0b83…ae3f | 409,573,122 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| db99…02ef | 417,258,508 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| dc49…ddcf | 417,226,112 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| 5261…295f | 417,412,359 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| 5813…850f | 417,258,705 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15831 | replay |
| 2323…0faf | 421,273,666 | +12.8% | 15831 | replay | |
| 2a7c…d83f | 421,273,886 | +6.4% | 15831 | replay | |
| 7494…d44f | 421,083,475 | +4.2% | 15831 | replay | |
| f99f…e91f | 419,809,424 | +1.7% | 15831 | replay | |
| cfea…7fef | 417,279,517 | +0.7% | 15831 | replay | |
| be59…d1ef | 417,251,393 | +0.6% | 15831 | replay | |
| dda8…46cf | 425,917,270 | +0.4% | 15831 | replay | |
| 7aee…9f7f | 427,470,355 | +0.1% | 15831 | replay | |
| 760a…9f1f | 417,256,727 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 4ff8…351f | 416,351,345 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 086b…f09f | 419,832,290 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| e439…511f | 417,258,453 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 4e31…b84f | 419,834,812 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 68cf…df0f | 417,495,484 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 655f…266f | 419,809,849 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 51ad…b95f | 417,258,313 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| e53d…c76f | 419,811,396 | +0.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| e39b…509f | 417,499,784 | -2.5% | 15831 | replay | |
| f69b…612f | 417,499,956 | -3.1% | 15831 | replay | |
| 2f4b…fbbf | 417,252,633 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 7bab…d58f | 417,258,846 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 2bd0…d19f | 417,255,613 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 9fe2…842f | 417,225,297 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 55f3…980f | 417,254,865 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 9ff1…ed9f | 417,251,971 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| b955…604f | 417,255,084 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| a526…4def | 417,258,976 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| dd0b…4f1f | 417,221,796 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 46ec…ed9f | 417,223,201 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 4221…a6ff | 417,254,258 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 7170…aadf | 417,258,595 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 5109…0e7f | 417,255,816 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 9dad…886f | 417,255,356 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| adbc…cd3f | 417,226,943 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 35e6…1adf | 417,251,846 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 029a…db8f | 417,255,545 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 4b81…b8bf | 417,218,638 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay | |
| 8df2…0c6f | 417,249,934 | -20.0% | 15831 | replay |