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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 1.5x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 47% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 150952 anchors
OOS effect
+0.6%
n=17 out-of-sample
Hit rate
47%
17 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+3.5% → +5.5%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.354
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-8.7% … +15.8%
Support17
OOS support17
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 15095
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0wallet4fe13d21ab1a27910d173c3a5f42d56acf7d27aae49ce93f0d11f0d67e09bde3100%34
w1wallet82168518851160b26a9ef729180ffb3a31c17a84e9d007a533dddb3f64c53480100%34
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 87838+17.5%—view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1651022+11.9%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 487483+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 1835418+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1583115-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 15095
5 resolved wallets
82168…534804fe13…9bde31e431…10b17434a4…6b0f712a48…532a2
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
fe4d…6f9f420,502,989+30.0%✓15095 replay
5a25…79af422,684,141+30.0%✓15095 replay
3e41…6f7f423,231,849+30.0%✓15095 replay
127f…afcf416,976,564+30.0%✓15095 replay
222e…05af423,109,510+30.0%✓15095 replay
95cb…7c8f415,037,958+30.0%✓15095 replay
8430…acff424,170,325+30.0%✓15095 replay
9883…6f3f420,502,650+30.0%✓15095 replay
3f02…f17f425,248,345+30.0%✓15095 replay
f5e8…d1ef421,611,024+30.0%✓15095 replay
753a…6d6f420,487,752+30.0%✓15095 replay
f81c…504f420,480,890+30.0%✓15095 replay
6e26…e0cf427,148,687+30.0%✓15095 replay
7288…4b2f417,061,809+30.0%✓15095 replay
c218…c48a427,366,180+30.0%✓15095 replay
c92d…da2f422,583,902+30.0%✓15095 replay
77d8…274f416,981,236+30.0%✓15095 replay
762b…545f425,278,444+30.0%✓15095 replay
bf29…bc9f425,277,309+30.0%✓15095 replay
a74b…0d7f425,251,767+30.0%✓15095 replay
d830…f66f422,689,266+30.0%✓15095 replay
be9a…75ef419,827,647+30.0%✓15095 replay
3642…c20f421,613,226+30.0%✓15095 replay
cb48…d37f427,014,460+30.0%✓15095 replay
ae64…d36f424,184,340+30.0%✓15095 replay
089f…884f423,979,720+30.0%✓15095 replay
271b…65df415,487,596+30.0%✓15095 replay
0eea…19ef425,255,368+30.0%✓15095 replay
fc5e…239f422,584,049+30.0%✓15095 replay
162d…ad9f415,243,994+30.0%✓15095 replay
9053…67df427,021,782+30.0%✓15095 replay
b103…6626427,366,833+30.0%✓15095 replay
4f1c…ee8f416,985,536+30.0%✓15095 replay
aee2…b96f419,827,732+30.0%✓15095 replay
053c…973f420,514,788+30.0%✓15095 replay
1b8b…bb1f425,693,920+30.0%✓15095 replay
a6e8…e07f424,174,212+30.0%✓15095 replay
e3ec…8a3f426,335,988+30.0%✓15095 replay
b58b…fb7f414,663,388+30.0%✓15095 replay
b7e7…50cf423,972,223+30.0%✓15095 replay
54b5…17ef421,815,998+30.0%✓15095 replay
86e6…2f9f425,775,845+30.0%✓15095 replay
eca4…49ef422,684,952+30.0%✓15095 replay
0d09…996f424,185,884+30.0%✓15095 replay
580b…862f425,711,545+30.0%✓15095 replay
e882…de3f420,480,131+30.0%✓15095 replay
0472…b3bf425,287,109+30.0%✓15095 replay
e48c…a4af421,611,360+30.0%✓15095 replay
79c6…4a6f426,506,851+30.0%✓15095 replay
d783…488f420,484,884+30.0%✓15095 replay
1649…b1ef415,497,343+30.0%✓15095 replay
0de8…867f423,982,837+30.0%✓15095 replay
0c8d…d19f415,034,133+30.0%✓15095 replay
457c…bcdf424,206,083+30.0%✓15095 replay
fc7f…903f420,488,497+30.0%✓15095 replay
3697…624f424,168,289+30.0%✓15095 replay
ac32…2dcf417,220,766+30.0%✓15095 replay
166c…20bf421,815,447+30.0%✓15095 replay
c8fd…5e0f422,854,843+30.0%✓15095 replay
7933…b8bf424,179,233+30.0%✓15095 replay