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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 0.7x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 23% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 48742 anchors
OOS effect
+0.0%
n=0 out-of-sample
Hit rate
23%
83 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+1.9% → +2.2%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.233
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-2.1% … +5.8%
Support83
OOS support0
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 4874
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0wallet3ba13070a70f7e925b373e50280ed274976a8bde3a3bb04f03c8a15e45c6427098%81
w1walleta636de118518b3901d1ae794e7f77a5904b8637d688288cec324ee4b78723b2c99%82
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 87838+17.5%—view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1651022+11.9%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 1509517+0.6%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 1835418+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1583115-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 4874
6 resolved wallets
a636d…23b2cf1a32…1131c697b0…433b771012…0c4a31ccd6…06c64e4b00…9ff1f
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
6fe2…98ff418,434,368+30.0%✓4874 replay
6dfc…205f412,329,956+30.0%✓4874 replay
83f8…58ff410,411,040+30.0%✓4874 replay
79e2…17bf411,711,989+30.0%✓4874 replay
f6e4…cdef421,528,822+30.0%✓4874 replay
91ba…94ff417,835,292+30.0%✓4874 replay
8f20…4f1f414,984,764+30.0%✓4874 replay
991a…860f411,926,939+30.0%✓4874 replay
7ebc…e90f410,344,972+30.0%✓4874 replay
9d5b…aa6f416,474,963+30.0%✓4874 replay
10ed…073f417,684,170+30.0%✓4874 replay
f014…c1ff421,526,168+30.0%✓4874 replay
13ec…a75f413,698,516+30.0%✓4874 replay
d498…628f416,480,293+30.0%✓4874 replay
b3ac…be3f412,334,619+30.0%✓4874 replay
3c31…156f413,015,373+30.0%✓4874 replay
cb96…9c5f419,120,970+30.0%✓4874 replay
97af…017f411,241,761+30.0%✓4874 replay
c65c…5e3f411,015,068+30.0%✓4874 replay
298c…153f411,458,797+30.0%✓4874 replay
75e0…ebff417,609,564+30.0%✓4874 replay
b93d…b32f421,530,986+30.0%✓4874 replay
6141…9a7f413,429,361+30.0%✓4874 replay
740a…d69f421,724,864+30.0%✓4874 replay
7e86…05bf418,004,549+30.0%✓4874 replay
a7e2…51df413,013,392+30.0%✓4874 replay
ccc4…925f410,170,090+30.0%✓4874 replay
2b16…216f414,292,906+30.0%✓4874 replay
85a8…227f416,934,622+30.0%✓4874 replay
f13f…8a7f414,101,834+30.0%✓4874 replay
a5ee…cdff418,040,482+30.0%✓4874 replay
c0bf…463f418,702,420+30.0%✓4874 replay
3342…9baf418,433,018+30.0%✓4874 replay
8f16…cebf410,572,116+30.0%✓4874 replay
3098…4abf412,765,885+30.0%✓4874 replay
84cc…6acf417,390,373+30.0%✓4874 replay
64bd…170f421,514,661+30.0%✓4874 replay
f6ee…ecdf417,372,252+30.0%✓4874 replay
71e6…001f418,874,187+30.0%✓4874 replay
406d…d89f417,682,171+30.0%✓4874 replay
e430…fcdf421,895,058+30.0%✓4874 replay
e453…b64f413,012,341+30.0%✓4874 replay
a720…3d2f411,451,155+30.0%✓4874 replay
0917…1b0f416,372,510+30.0%✓4874 replay
254a…5a4f416,504,238+30.0%✓4874 replay
2aaa…2eef418,024,996+30.0%✓4874 replay
0e44…9ddf410,584,175+30.0%✓4874 replay
b04f…01af411,269,419+30.0%✓4874 replay
5ecb…d5bf410,786,120+30.0%✓4874 replay
a74e…c01f413,441,852+30.0%✓4874 replay
c9aa…ac9f421,692,542+30.0%✓4874 replay
1ec2…a3af414,299,385+30.0%✓4874 replay
ada8…746f416,292,140+30.0%✓4874 replay
6197…15cf421,712,953+30.0%✓4874 replay
a470…30df416,076,880+30.0%✓4874 replay
d7ca…363f419,102,711+30.0%✓4874 replay
d7fe…c9ef421,901,746+30.0%✓4874 replay
f625…402f421,727,092+30.0%✓4874 replay
3858…7cbf411,680,174+30.0%✓4874 replay
04d3…148f418,249,731+30.0%✓4874 replay