wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 0.2x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 7% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 3362 anchors

OOS effect

+2.7%

n=227 out-of-sample

Hit rate

115 occurrences

Raw → shrunk

+0.5% → +0.6%

empirical-Bayes

FDR q

0.398

not significant

Exact rule

Expressive-Patterns DSL

Motif

fixed motif

◇ gold ring = frozen constant

Statistics

effect, confidence & description length

95% CI-1.7% … +2.7%

Support115

OOS support227

MDL bits20

Case / control49851 / 61403

Motif size3n · 3e

Shape ide00000000020…

Groundingcrew 336

Anchors

frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint

Node	Role	Address	Invariance	Support
w0	wallet	b9a6cb8cd5227cb15ea48ac7e0869713cf9ca6df2335655356ad60af30e64c26	100%	342
w1	wallet	d5c8aa6e77ba0451381775ef092758ca9e1a7ec9fe9a77654be2fdeacc334631	100%	342

Other crews running this exact shape

40 related groundings

Crew	Support	OOS	Kept?
crew 1533	35	+29.0%	✓	view →
crew 4519	36	+20.2%	✓	view →
crew 878	38	+17.5%	—	view →
crew 6442	34	+13.3%	—	view →
crew 2042	16	+13.1%	—	view →
crew 25399	68	+12.2%	—	view →
crew 16510	22	+11.9%	—	view →
crew 16	33	+10.4%	—	view →
crew 17893	3337	+10.4%	—	view →
crew 2728	16	+10.0%	—	view →
crew 13	72	+9.1%	—	view →
all	86168	+7.9%	—	view →
crew 5659	17	+7.5%	—	view →
crew 1050	127	+7.2%	—	view →
crew 4966	44	+3.8%	—	view →
crew 56	26	+3.3%	—	view →
crew 15095	17	+0.6%	—	view →
crew 43	20	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 341	36	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 2351	132	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 3677	52	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 4084	21	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 4874	83	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 5578	27	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 6323	16	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 6526	20	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 8743	27	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 11115	22	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 12682	31	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 13412	15	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 15372	23	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 18354	18	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 22102	31	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 24002	24	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 3593	18	-0.3%	—	view →
crew 10888	23	-10.0%	—	view →
crew 16437	18	-13.0%	—	view →
crew 7956	27	-20.0%	—	view →
crew 15831	15	-20.0%	—	view →
crew 16628	28	-20.0%	—	view →

Crew 336

183 resolved wallets

b9a6c…64c260756d…64856b83bf…7924a012e6…6c846e765f…76fbac86be…9f9ddcfd5f…9bb00c8970…3a5e26740a…c7923e733a…42b8ffab12…6cd1e91e20…154b89d8f0…254a4be70e…c06bf1d156…2afeba94d6…eb62e4ef96…6c72d3a715…7f4ef1c70d…a795e07f22…9bcef8b42c…02a3147d49…90ee3f2530…7426ebfd4b…caa693f8f3…aaa7a21987…92f8beb172…e2295bac4c…c928f7cbc6…db838edd2e…3f4eae8b18…e1b37a1235…4117897427…fc4fa48f40…3baae31bcc…5d2d795f64…57f524e319…e62ce20d84…006e9863f1…c973716c63…276276f437…ecd15ff752…0f6a599a69…7493ea8601…a5cc350138…5e49f6ea3a…ed5ff128c2…1f727b7d43…4dd13eb95e…fd74f0e1a7…c0cfaede7e…c5f728185b…ad78e81d4c…83ba01dd15…e68b3e3747…be2ea68347…c1977261c9…e1067e0ff4…ce53ed98bd…4ed892bcea…bef395f0bb…3296311a95…6d69e9578f…69f2a9e765…f6735d4198…85901387e9…7e4a77461b…4d0137446f…adbcebd875…c877253246…2707a937e2…c76317a753…30d878795a…c7cec62c24…951db1818e…d987607f7c…652ea5a41d…68cb06c3d3…ca11b6fdb9…dbf78238d4…4fea2+103 more

Supporting episodes

60 occurrences that induced this rule

Token	Slot	Return	Pump?	Crew
8954…56cf	412,010,449	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
283e…248f	427,562,867	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
27a2…cdff	427,675,506	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
3a17…8a6f	427,502,095	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
69dd…4a5f	427,592,334	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
3bef…89cf	427,452,289	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
db76…787f	427,545,917	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
fd04…3d4f	427,479,924	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
fe73…fc9f	427,461,647	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
469b…895f	427,577,609	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
ceff…6bcf	427,589,705	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
2735…096f	427,586,743	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
731c…75cf	427,591,686	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
89dc…3d2f	427,449,222	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
597b…551f	426,596,544	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
4486…42ff	427,450,386	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
6bca…bcbf	427,547,732	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
d4e9…79bf	427,456,713	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
24a6…1c3f	427,606,937	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
cf40…524f	427,477,799	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
8ae6…e68f	427,506,094	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
3dec…d7af	427,671,777	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
8cd8…647f	427,493,709	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
d14e…cf5f	427,592,177	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
d1bd…055f	427,498,094	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
48f0…5dff	427,496,790	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
4a02…b52f	427,554,634	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
4252…34af	427,542,578	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
42df…196f	427,486,026	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
436f…140f	427,470,979	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
4e95…d55f	427,496,350	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
8fa3…66df	414,232,160	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
03ad…6f5f	427,678,679	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
24e2…b9cf	427,671,075	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
4540…c4ef	427,477,966	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
7b85…fe9f	427,468,421	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
950c…afdf	427,456,847	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
32c4…3b3f	413,891,794	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
e31f…f66f	427,579,341	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
9488…7fdf	427,567,569	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
8b36…0aaf	427,474,071	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
971c…545f	427,483,146	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
fa84…585f	427,505,869	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
d4da…849f	418,423,134	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
90b1…9e7f	427,674,880	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
62a0…ee6f	427,587,474	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
067c…531f	427,548,565	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
863b…0b3f	427,466,547	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
8390…c1ff	427,599,248	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
986b…e99f	427,505,409	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
6acc…757f	427,561,456	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
84ea…7daf	427,493,409	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
59bb…ccaf	427,673,105	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
ea99…af7f	425,848,288	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
80b0…062f	427,599,527	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
5ce2…c15f	427,461,197	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
3121…ec7f	427,544,707	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
7f1e…349f	425,701,635	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
9ae6…f9df	426,606,234	+30.0%	✓	336	replay
89f3…fc9f	427,482,031	+30.0%	✓	336	replay