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rule detail

wash·2-hop chain→buy

rejected: only 0.5x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 17% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)

rulesrejectedcrew 183542 anchors
OOS effect
+0.0%
n=0 out-of-sample
Hit rate
17%
18 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+3.8% → +4.8%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.236
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransferwwT
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-4.3% … +12.0%
Support18
OOS support0
MDL bits20
Case / control49851 / 61403
Motif size3n · 3e
Shape ide00000000020…
Groundingcrew 18354
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
NodeRoleAddressInvarianceSupport
w0walletfe2e1a4ca3151568899fd1001e46f3416c4efb7a35d100017ddab8ecf8e164a4100%18
w1walletca820b812828352eb38a0eda9716c56c90e8e512739e85aee94b22fbbfbccf0f100%18
Other crews running this exact shape
40 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 153335+29.0%✓view →
crew 451936+20.2%✓view →
crew 87838+17.5%—view →
crew 644234+13.3%—view →
crew 204216+13.1%—view →
crew 2539968+12.2%—view →
crew 1651022+11.9%—view →
crew 1633+10.4%—view →
crew 178933337+10.4%—view →
crew 272816+10.0%—view →
crew 1372+9.1%—view →
all86168+7.9%—view →
crew 565917+7.5%—view →
crew 1050127+7.2%—view →
crew 496644+3.8%—view →
crew 5626+3.3%—view →
crew 336115+2.7%—view →
crew 1509517+0.6%—view →
crew 4320+0.0%—view →
crew 34136+0.0%—view →
crew 2351132+0.0%—view →
crew 367752+0.0%—view →
crew 408421+0.0%—view →
crew 487483+0.0%—view →
crew 557827+0.0%—view →
crew 632316+0.0%—view →
crew 652620+0.0%—view →
crew 874327+0.0%—view →
crew 1111522+0.0%—view →
crew 1268231+0.0%—view →
crew 1341215+0.0%—view →
crew 1537223+0.0%—view →
crew 2210231+0.0%—view →
crew 2400224+0.0%—view →
crew 359318-0.3%—view →
crew 1088823-10.0%—view →
crew 1643718-13.0%—view →
crew 795627-20.0%—view →
crew 1583115-20.0%—view →
crew 1662828-20.0%—view →
Crew 18354
3 resolved wallets
308ee…49cc4ca820…ccf0f91757…e1565
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
914f…22cf421,671,844+30.0%✓18354 replay
49b9…382f417,147,656+30.0%✓18354 replay
574f…784f412,713,762+30.0%✓18354 replay
45a7…7baf417,555,251+30.0%✓18354 replay
8c64…569f413,157,117+30.0%✓18354 replay
319d…90ef416,836,673+30.0%✓18354 replay
bdd0…92af420,618,143+30.0%✓18354 replay
9d3b…9b3f417,298,496+30.0%✓18354 replay
4974…36df416,835,904+30.0%✓18354 replay
9436…192f417,139,608+30.0%✓18354 replay
581e…a83f412,925,120+30.0%✓18354 replay
04c9…90af416,844,022+30.0%✓18354 replay
5b3b…007f413,144,513+30.0%✓18354 replay
de9c…f30f416,627,589+30.0%✓18354 replay
ac5a…1a9a419,458,331+30.0%✓18354 replay
2e78…2d6f412,728,338+30.0%✓18354 replay
2496…b4af416,895,400+30.0%✓18354 replay
0d66…f5ef410,723,604+30.0%✓18354 replay
d8e0…95bf412,691,046+30.0%✓18354 replay
d63f…9b1f417,147,756+30.0%✓18354 replay
47ea…fccf417,146,265+30.0%✓18354 replay
8ba3…787f412,691,727+30.0%✓18354 replay
7b38…615f416,861,535+30.0%✓18354 replay
3c07…6cff416,663,406+30.0%✓18354 replay
d522…a7ef412,710,035+30.0%✓18354 replay
b3f7…a63f413,142,306+30.0%✓18354 replay
8243…2f5f419,275,470+30.0%✓18354 replay
726a…c7df416,838,119+30.0%✓18354 replay
a62c…4f2f414,019,127+29.6%18354 replay
d305…3d5f416,877,456+29.0%18354 replay
1cbb…a54f416,870,081+28.7%18354 replay
516d…5c7f412,498,454+26.9%18354 replay
76c1…f5af416,876,910+24.9%18354 replay
97c1…459f412,502,419+21.3%18354 replay
b497…012f417,146,446+20.2%18354 replay
15ac…ebbf417,568,144+19.3%18354 replay
7ff9…64ef417,518,018+18.9%18354 replay
a196…921f412,504,703+18.5%18354 replay
7ab0…41af412,994,116+18.4%18354 replay
0c3e…a75f416,871,156+18.4%18354 replay
a893…b2ef416,898,077+17.8%18354 replay
b5d5…fbef413,143,509+17.0%18354 replay
cf28…f8ef417,142,678+14.7%18354 replay
06a4…783f416,663,996+14.4%18354 replay
45ef…284f416,682,715+14.3%18354 replay
15e3…cd1f416,704,915+13.0%18354 replay
7010…a68f416,873,197+12.9%18354 replay
3719…60cf416,679,140+12.1%18354 replay
b719…7c2f417,269,690+10.5%18354 replay
b7b0…4cff416,903,265+9.6%18354 replay
07ef…19ef417,104,596+1.9%18354 replay
86eb…492f412,499,394+1.3%18354 replay
d45a…85ff416,683,067+0.6%18354 replay
0709…567f418,181,505+0.1%18354 replay
9ea9…34ef417,142,209+0.0%18354 replay
2110…30cf416,498,013+0.0%18354 replay
8421…1c9f417,564,020-0.6%18354 replay
184c…b4ff413,150,416-5.3%18354 replay
d2c4…635f412,712,649-6.7%18354 replay
e644…628f412,714,239-7.3%18354 replay