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Offline
│Paper P&L+0.00 ◎│Open0│Trades0rule detail
fan-in(2)→buy
rejected: only 0.2x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 7% vs base 32%) · non-executable: anchor on a non-buyer node (needs the structural matcher)
OOS effect
-18.6%
n=3 out-of-sample
Hit rate
7%
15 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
-15.0% → -11.9%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
1.000
not significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
fixed motif
◇ gold ring = frozen constant
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI-21.5% … -8.5%
Support15
OOS support3
MDL bits20
Case / control169959 / 281596
Motif size4n · 3e
Shape ide00000000000…
Groundingcrew 22031
Anchors
frozen constants — this crew's fingerprint
| Node | Role | Address | Invariance | Support |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| w0 | wallet | d281423607d15bdaa2b2e7ffe16f5965d1f31d34822eb56e4d69735c2beb30af | 100% | 18 |
| w1 | wallet | 6e3e25507a808e481e2a5a60aa151e609e8986468a5f4db5686eead03659895a | 100% | 18 |
Other crews running this exact shape
35 related groundings
| Crew | Support | OOS | Kept? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crew 13183 | 15 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 24623 | 26 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 27577 | 16 | +28.3% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 15 | 15 | +18.7% | — | view → |
| crew 25399 | 17 | +16.0% | — | view → |
| crew 16 | 42 | +15.1% | — | view → |
| crew 4519 | 18 | +14.9% | — | view → |
| crew 373 | 16 | +14.2% | — | view → |
| crew 171 | 35 | +11.3% | — | view → |
| crew 6 | 54 | +11.2% | — | view → |
| crew 19 | 26 | +9.8% | — | view → |
| crew 59 | 42 | +9.7% | — | view → |
| crew 21 | 29 | +8.9% | — | view → |
| crew 94 | 31 | +8.4% | — | view → |
| crew 5 | 32 | +8.1% | — | view → |
| all | 301982 | +7.1% | — | view → |
| crew 13 | 230 | +6.9% | — | view → |
| crew 2702 | 47 | +5.8% | — | view → |
| crew 140 | 124 | +5.0% | — | view → |
| crew 5075 | 15 | +5.0% | — | view → |
| crew 145 | 22 | +4.6% | — | view → |
| crew 68 | 32 | +4.3% | — | view → |
| crew 88 | 25 | +3.4% | — | view → |
| crew 336 | 25 | +2.8% | — | view → |
| crew 55 | 22 | +2.7% | — | view → |
| crew 36 | 18 | +2.7% | — | view → |
| crew 153 | 16 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 834 | 16 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 2978 | 23 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 10521 | 15 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 34 | 23 | -0.4% | — | view → |
| crew 20 | 71 | -1.0% | — | view → |
| crew 31 | 30 | -2.3% | — | view → |
| crew 47 | 22 | -9.7% | — | view → |
| crew 23183 | 22 | -15.4% | — | view → |
Crew 22031
3 resolved wallets
d2814…b30af6e3e2…9895a80bb6…ab11b
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
| Token | Slot | Return | Pump? | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80a5…cb1f | 423,683,787 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 4b05…b79f | 421,020,004 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c5e3…86ff | 423,330,291 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 0fff…40cf | 421,423,620 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c64d…8346 | 422,095,666 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 254b…e67f | 420,413,311 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c4ff…a9af | 421,472,722 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 5ed4…a92f | 419,733,366 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 7f32…688f | 421,236,016 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| ff6a…97df | 421,044,133 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| ac80…527f | 421,490,840 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| d438…b86f | 421,222,704 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| f79a…fa1f | 420,593,893 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 56c6…c42f | 423,327,761 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 3857…047f | 420,061,828 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 5632…a62f | 421,272,298 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 7762…93ef | 420,999,802 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| e713…57df | 420,463,351 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 3e34…b8af | 419,717,167 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 7d1e…080f | 422,118,440 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 1b0a…707f | 421,041,292 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 00b1…46fc | 421,020,440 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 9563…325f | 421,261,399 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 9c47…92ff | 421,282,914 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 6a63…8aff | 420,992,638 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 1e0f…17ef | 421,014,197 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| e12f…ce6f | 422,808,925 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 2fe8…4c6f | 421,964,153 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c111…2c8f | 422,798,084 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c6d8…ffbf | 420,866,438 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 6350…0fbf | 421,044,023 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 0846…fa91 | 423,656,124 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c972…a524 | 421,449,907 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| fcf5…12e8 | 421,033,936 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| d493…354f | 419,672,700 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 8ef3…f0ff | 420,993,957 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 65da…f64d | 423,462,276 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| da37…160f | 421,460,198 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| f30c…da6f | 421,009,271 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 013c…f0ef | 420,994,000 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 968e…f30f | 420,021,215 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 33c4…6e2f | 419,906,004 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| b2e9…695f | 420,359,618 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 329d…a2af | 421,490,337 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| c6a7…bf6f | 421,490,459 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 05bf…74a4 | 422,098,444 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| e30f…0f62 | 421,096,468 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| fcb0…338f | 419,683,118 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| e77a…15ef | 421,027,936 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 9b2c…ca1f | 422,970,884 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| eaf7…955f | 420,365,256 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| d6a9…149f | 422,798,579 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| cc8c…089f | 422,105,957 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| f10a…3a5f | 422,353,834 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| eb13…de2f | 421,221,757 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 16be…1ed1 | 419,838,580 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| cd5c…b5af | 421,490,400 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 58ea…2b5f | 419,884,361 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 0e37…e8af | 421,492,121 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |
| 2d42…e4cf | 421,041,435 | +30.0% | ✓ | 22031 | replay |