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rule detail

fan-in(3)→buy

rejected: only 1.0x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 32% vs base 32%)

rulesrejectedall
OOS effect
+4.3%
n=44138 out-of-sample
Hit rate
32%
81769 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+5.4% → +5.4%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.000
significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
transferbuy@pumpfunpumpftransfertransferwwwwT
recursive family
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI+5.3% … +5.6%
Support81,769
OOS support44,138
MDL bits0
Case / control38949 / 87004
Motif size5n · 4e
Shape ide00000000000…
Groundingall
Other crews running this exact shape
31 related groundings
CrewSupportOOSKept?
crew 487431+30.0%—view →
crew 2757735+28.5%✓view →
crew 2462382+27.7%—view →
crew 451917+18.7%—view →
crew 30630+17.2%—view →
crew 5915+15.0%—view →
crew 3424+11.2%—view →
crew 2143+11.0%—view →
crew 13126+10.7%—view →
crew 9438+9.3%—view →
crew 626+7.9%—view →
crew 1228+7.1%—view →
crew 17142+5.5%—view →
crew 20222+4.7%—view →
crew 538+2.6%—view →
crew 6819+2.5%—view →
crew 4735+2.3%—view →
crew 1920+0.3%—view →
crew 916+0.0%—view →
crew 1750+0.0%—view →
crew 15352+0.0%—view →
crew 252816+0.0%—view →
crew 1512520+0.0%—view →
crew 1579635+0.0%—view →
crew 1996318+0.0%—view →
crew 2377324+0.0%—view →
crew 3124-0.1%—view →
crew 3631-0.8%—view →
crew 2781718-6.5%—view →
crew 14547-7.3%—view →
crew 2318330-12.8%—view →
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
TokenSlotReturnPump?Crew
6fe9…4bef414,913,368+30.0%✓2978 replay
6ff1…618f418,324,968+30.0%✓5134 replay
dd44…5b0f414,558,237+30.0%✓4226 replay
dd79…f9ff413,193,352+30.0%✓10330 replay
dd83…65af422,218,657+30.0%✓27577 replay
db90…b09f412,097,679+30.0%✓21706 replay
dbbe…7f1f417,763,842+30.0%✓20257 replay
dbbe…bc3f416,975,095+30.0%✓— replay
57e7…b1ff425,604,959+30.0%✓6 replay
dc00…e74f420,556,460+30.0%✓5 replay
dc38…e21f420,604,065+30.0%✓21 replay
dc45…09bf413,967,133+30.0%✓12 replay
402e…31ff422,877,757+30.0%✓27577 replay
402e…d7bf426,613,087+30.0%✓27577 replay
406e…b95f420,002,228+30.0%✓13 replay
409e…2daf411,243,750+30.0%✓13183 replay
c381…4f7f420,757,809+30.0%✓27577 replay
c383…0e4f412,175,978+30.0%✓41887 replay
c3c2…df2f414,532,511+30.0%✓7 replay
d2d1…601f419,888,526+30.0%✓68 replay
d2f0…c80f415,485,225+30.0%✓13 replay
d307…159f422,327,628+30.0%✓40 replay
d3ca…8d3f426,681,834+30.0%✓68 replay
d3fa…83af425,102,738+30.0%✓145 replay
7310…105f410,970,743+30.0%✓18648 replay
7311…edcf422,670,181+30.0%✓15 replay
3b13…f37f418,859,241+30.0%✓23632 replay
3b45…c15f426,060,358+30.0%✓94 replay
3bce…b9cf425,010,097+30.0%✓6 replay
3be1…a0af414,899,176+30.0%✓24623 replay
3be9…8881421,238,521+30.0%✓9 replay
3c51…426f417,150,599+30.0%✓68 replay
3c52…8cc9421,234,672+30.0%✓13247 replay
0ee1…eeaf423,270,245+30.0%✓7664 replay
dbcd…7fdf420,515,259+30.0%✓5974 replay
0ee9…6cbf425,199,591+30.0%✓17032 replay
57a1…b1ff410,550,471+30.0%✓13183 replay
5dc8…150f422,928,848+30.0%✓27577 replay
5dba…e3bf417,201,056+30.0%✓20 replay
5d73…9f8f420,194,565+30.0%✓11489 replay
5d39…dcef412,054,219+30.0%✓7956 replay
5d0b…5c0e412,035,325+30.0%✓153 replay
5cf3…93af414,254,069+30.0%✓9 replay
0ef2…d5df425,762,423+30.0%✓94 replay
5ce0…e1bf423,397,219+30.0%✓16 replay
5ca3…0cff425,317,995+30.0%✓19 replay
284b…f40f411,926,819+30.0%✓56 replay
2756…6268421,239,737+30.0%✓9 replay
6aa0…d7ff412,362,617+30.0%✓47 replay
6a7a…93ff417,176,658+30.0%✓3556 replay
6a77…645f424,775,120+30.0%✓6 replay
69f9…476f419,111,200+30.0%✓15 replay
5cee…693f414,280,578+30.0%✓24623 replay
0ef7…f98f426,314,751+30.0%✓7664 replay
69e3…908f414,558,921+30.0%✓1968 replay
0ef3…362f425,798,140+30.0%✓94 replay
0ef3…b40f425,791,578+30.0%✓34 replay
0ef7…610f426,309,532+30.0%✓7664 replay
0ef3…d5ef425,790,860+30.0%✓94 replay
0ef3…9d5f425,790,707+30.0%✓94 replay