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Offline
│Paper P&L+0.00 ◎│Open0│Trades0rule detail
seed→fan-out(4)→all-buy
rejected: only 1.6x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 51% vs base 32%)
OOS effect
+14.8%
n=61212 out-of-sample
Hit rate
51%
109993 occurrences
Raw → shrunk
+12.2% → +12.2%
empirical-Bayes
FDR q
0.000
significant
Exact rule
Expressive-Patterns DSL
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Motif
recursive family
Statistics
effect, confidence & description length
95% CI+12.1% … +12.3%
Support109,993
OOS support61,212
MDL bits0
Case / control89607 / 81615
Motif size6n · 6e
Shape ide00000000000…
Groundingall
Other crews running this exact shape
23 related groundings
| Crew | Support | OOS | Kept? | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| crew 3029 | 16 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 10521 | 49 | +30.0% | — | view → |
| crew 113 | 32 | +27.9% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 88 | 78 | +25.6% | — | view → |
| crew 59 | 26 | +22.9% | — | view → |
| crew 4519 | 18 | +20.3% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 213 | 16 | +19.5% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 6436 | 44 | +16.1% | — | view → |
| crew 15 | 82 | +15.3% | ✓ | view → |
| crew 40 | 40 | +15.0% | — | view → |
| crew 13 | 1988 | +14.6% | — | view → |
| crew 6 | 230 | +14.5% | — | view → |
| crew 34 | 34 | +14.0% | — | view → |
| crew 21 | 143 | +12.7% | — | view → |
| crew 2702 | 111 | +9.7% | — | view → |
| crew 68 | 245 | +8.0% | — | view → |
| crew 55 | 47 | +5.2% | — | view → |
| crew 12 | 16 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 314 | 20 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 6494 | 24 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 12477 | 17 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 15215 | 16 | +0.0% | — | view → |
| crew 19519 | 20 | +0.0% | — | view → |
Supporting episodes
60 occurrences that induced this rule
| Token | Slot | Return | Pump? | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5ce7…d10f | 424,039,570 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 5cda…5f4f | 423,358,190 | +30.0% | ✓ | 213 | replay |
| 5cd2…96df | 416,607,616 | +30.0% | ✓ | 3034 | replay |
| 5cab…e62f | 424,212,192 | +30.0% | ✓ | 9879 | replay |
| 5ca7…3d5f | 424,082,835 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 5ca6…842f | 416,920,499 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 5ca4…b747 | 423,771,395 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 5ca3…d0ef | 424,740,062 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 2838…9bcf | 420,411,901 | +30.0% | ✓ | 113 | replay |
| 2823…808f | 424,301,358 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 72ef…6d6f | 426,881,276 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15 | replay |
| 2806…474f | 422,966,174 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2804…008f | 422,384,039 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 27f7…543f | 423,477,771 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15 | replay |
| 27f0…62df | 416,426,666 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 27eb…255f | 412,426,956 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 27c5…8b4f | 417,113,784 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 27a9…16ff | 414,923,813 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 279e…bcef | 420,897,403 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2783…8def | 417,768,081 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 277a…5dff | 412,799,876 | +30.0% | ✓ | 40 | replay |
| 2771…c0bf | 427,309,638 | +30.0% | ✓ | 15 | replay |
| 2767…4ddf | 427,292,766 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2764…c0ff | 427,219,480 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 2758…42a3 | 414,530,232 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 271e…23ef | 419,373,455 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 270c…8f3f | 415,182,107 | +30.0% | ✓ | 3 | replay |
| 6aa9…651f | 424,602,776 | +30.0% | ✓ | 40 | replay |
| 6a98…0e9f | 411,943,418 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a8c…18df | 422,048,454 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a79…58af | 412,265,276 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a5d…b04f | 415,688,442 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a4f…cf0f | 410,338,193 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a2f…61ff | 423,930,990 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a29…b70f | 420,525,079 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 280f…7dcf | 413,192,958 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 6a15…d20f | 418,669,745 | +30.0% | ✓ | 10521 | replay |
| 7305…9dcf | 426,202,914 | +30.0% | ✓ | 88 | replay |
| 733c…c39f | 422,395,347 | +30.0% | ✓ | 306 | replay |
| 734c…043f | 424,088,737 | +30.0% | ✓ | 10114 | replay |
| 3b23…f2ff | 418,406,234 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6436 | replay |
| 3b31…caef | 423,365,951 | +30.0% | ✓ | 43 | replay |
| 3b3b…32af | 420,749,696 | +30.0% | ✓ | 213 | replay |
| 3b45…c15f | 426,060,358 | +30.0% | ✓ | 94 | replay |
| 3b50…57ff | 426,904,416 | +30.0% | ✓ | 213 | replay |
| 3b7a…514a | 418,350,300 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 69ee…43ff | 414,514,227 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3bb2…52ef | 414,290,350 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3bc9…e4df | 425,107,949 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3bca…0b5f | 426,117,766 | +30.0% | ✓ | 113 | replay |
| 3bd2…cfef | 412,570,522 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3c2f…5aff | 424,075,671 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3c33…078f | 417,396,595 | +30.0% | ✓ | 6 | replay |
| 3b94…f49f | 427,218,268 | +30.0% | ✓ | 34 | replay |
| 0ef8…c99f | 423,237,693 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 0f00…b45f | 426,693,290 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 3c43…e1cf | 426,117,347 | +30.0% | ✓ | 43 | replay |
| 695f…4d95 | 418,966,319 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 0f07…f94f | 414,312,237 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |
| 69b9…2b2f | 420,616,518 | +30.0% | ✓ | 13 | replay |