co-buy(2)

rejected: only 0.2x base-rate lift (need 2x; hit 6% vs base 32%)

rulesrejectedcrew 1688

OOS effect

-20.0%

n=7 out-of-sample

Hit rate

17 occurrences

Raw → shrunk

-15.9% → -13.1%

empirical-Bayes

FDR q

1.000

not significant

Exact rule

Expressive-Patterns DSL

Motif

fixed motif

Statistics

effect, confidence & description length

95% CI-22.0% … -9.9%

Support17

OOS support7

MDL bits20

Case / control28487 / 163985

Motif size3n · 2e

Shape ide00000000020…

Groundingcrew 1688

Other crews running this exact shape

17 related groundings

Crew	Support	OOS	Kept?
crew 113	19	+30.0%	—	view →
crew 86	17	+22.9%	—	view →
crew 47	99	+10.0%	—	view →
crew 16	20	+5.3%	—	view →
crew 13	104	+2.4%	—	view →
crew 1006	33	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 2398	36	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 4572	24	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 5072	43	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 15931	19	+0.0%	—	view →
crew 6	66	-10.0%	—	view →
all	126043	-11.6%	—	view →
crew 68	19	-13.6%	—	view →
crew 2704	56	-14.2%	—	view →
crew 230	20	-20.0%	—	view →
crew 21738	16	-20.0%	—	view →
crew 9	23	-20.0%	—	view →

Crew 1688

31 resolved wallets

799ab…b968a8cf8d…15985e6135…6fc4ec3d22…e81d885e13…9a1aebb7b6…a3d8424c18…5e45405046…513da5b33d…fd6cabd5ab…e45b44273d…a44a60eb9f…bf3b1a9787…71f75869b8…eae18a7547…60338047eb…b38a6321a2…59b63a11a1…1209d192d0…325510486c…7696718385…2c6fd2cf4e…d84863add7…e4b9bfa71b…78d9edf7ca…97909935eb…a0513a6462…afe2d3d996…58d8065001…f5f682fd52…ac1ae87606…dfde1

Supporting episodes

60 occurrences that induced this rule

Token	Slot	Return	Pump?	Crew
ddc8…ff35	427,166,130	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
93c3…c025	417,740,764	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
c6f1…bd9f	423,308,830	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
f582…33f2	423,762,222	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
45af…8cba	416,168,409	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
e18c…e348	416,248,913	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
5c59…d7da	425,779,275	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
a84a…b44d	426,345,658	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
c036…b391	410,954,844	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
24d4…abf6	422,534,632	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
f086…b178	416,144,117	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
0b52…15c1	415,924,821	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
de59…67f7	422,520,955	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
1a8e…950d	422,328,322	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
e128…a018	422,520,543	+30.0%	✓	1688	replay
585f…c930	420,477,143	+27.0%		1688	replay
f95b…ef40	416,248,429	+3.0%		1688	replay
e897…d796	420,801,934	+1.7%		1688	replay
ab04…e716	426,167,230	+0.4%		1688	replay
6073…fc54	416,248,221	+0.2%		1688	replay
2a7a…0557	422,533,248	-0.3%		1688	replay
3b8e…94ab	415,418,829	-0.4%		1688	replay
020c…a959	419,502,785	-0.7%		1688	replay
55b7…f49c	415,418,628	-1.0%		1688	replay
d138…0f80	411,570,723	-1.6%		1688	replay
8bf3…ab13	422,315,929	-2.2%		1688	replay
ef67…3145	411,347,060	-2.8%		1688	replay
7ffe…75bb	412,016,925	-3.3%		1688	replay
6d3e…a706	415,917,380	-3.9%		1688	replay
32be…eabb	415,917,087	-3.9%		1688	replay
b468…b94d	414,664,940	-5.3%		1688	replay
63a8…bc7a	414,665,185	-5.3%		1688	replay
ec5a…0011	417,674,385	-6.1%		1688	replay
e3a5…f5c7	420,554,870	-6.6%		1688	replay
94cf…e1c9	416,894,364	-7.5%		1688	replay
fbe8…b4cf	416,249,375	-8.2%		1688	replay
fbb8…8283	414,071,257	-8.6%		1688	replay
78af…7af7	422,535,247	-8.6%		1688	replay
6fa0…a61c	426,346,897	-8.8%		1688	replay
cada…fd89	414,664,317	-9.1%		1688	replay
6b68…921c	422,424,641	-9.7%		1688	replay
2b4b…8e1c	416,249,141	-10.4%		1688	replay
55b8…cd09	417,235,734	-10.5%		1688	replay
7a6e…a59c	416,034,927	-11.0%		1688	replay
6d55…36e2	422,535,461	-11.5%		1688	replay
4956…9d1e	416,249,884	-11.7%		1688	replay
71f0…fedf	415,530,185	-12.3%		1688	replay
53d4…b7b0	416,248,679	-12.3%		1688	replay
b7f7…25ca	426,347,416	-13.6%		1688	replay
0913…cb4e	411,879,999	-13.8%		1688	replay
d80e…cfd3	416,894,738	-13.9%		1688	replay
74ce…5d0c	411,434,194	-14.1%		1688	replay
7f12…ee77	416,663,961	-14.4%		1688	replay
ef11…7089	419,180,817	-15.3%		1688	replay
8697…f92f	411,433,780	-17.0%		1688	replay
db13…e5bc	422,534,325	-17.4%		1688	replay
2a92…0c75	416,250,205	-17.7%		1688	replay
1cd6…91b2	411,575,406	-18.1%		1688	replay
0916…746d	416,154,943	-18.2%		1688	replay
e24b…7951	416,251,100	-18.5%		1688	replay